Just how unlikely was Houston’s win vs. Kansas on Saturday afternoon in Lawrence? Even more unlikely than you may have realized.
According to data from KenPom and college basketball stat guru Jared Benson, the Houston Cougars only had a .4% chance to win when Kansas had the ball up by six points with 20 seconds left in the first overtime.
Houston would hit back-to-back three pointers, force a second overtime, and go on to win the game over the Kansas Jayhawks 92-86. The win makes it the most unlikely of any of the nearly 1,500 games between AP Top 25 teams over the last 15 seasons.
In regulation, KU had itself up by six points, 66-60, with 90 seconds to go. But then Milos Uzan’s back-to-back jumpers, and J’Wan Roberts’ clutch free throws, combined with sloppy Kansas offensive possessions, forced the game to overtime.
In overtime, it was Uzan who found Emanuel Sharp for a three-pointer in the final 10 seconds that cut KU’s lead to 79-76. And then, with KU trying to inbound in the final seconds, Uzan had the key steal that led to a Mylik Wilson three-pointer to tie the game at 79 and miraculously force a second overtime in Lawrence.
The Oklahoma transfer finished with his best, and most clutch game, in a Cougars uniform: 17 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists, including hitting 2-4 three pointers.
The win guarantees that the Cougars enter next week in first place in the Big 12 at a perfect 8-0, one game ahead of Iowa State and Arizona, who are both 7-1.
Houston still has to play both those teams during a week-long stretch where they will travel to Arizona for a Saturday, February 15th meeting, stay out west to play Arizona State on Monday, and then come home to take on Iowa State on Saturday, February 22nd.
As for the Jayhawks, there’s still plenty of basketball to play this season, but at 5-3 in Big 12 play, Kansas is now three games back of first place Houston, and has three other teams in front of them in the standings: Iowa State, Arizona and Texas Tech.
