The Big 12 men’s basketball season has eight more games to go, and the stretch couldn’t be more critical to a certain group of teams.
Hello, bubble.
The Arizona Wildcats are not on the bubble. But, after avenging their loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, they are now No. 1 in our Big 12 power rankings for the first time this season. For the moment, Tech remains at No. 2 because of its recent win over Houston. In fact, most of the top seven teams remained the same.
After that we’re getting into some real chaos, especially for a group of five teams that are right on the NCAA Tournament bubble. So, that’s what we’re focusing on this week — the league’s bubble teams and what they have left to do in order to get to March Madness.
Our Heartland College Sports men’s power rankings will come out every Monday until we get to the conference tournament in Kansas City.
Let’s dig in.
No. 1 Arizona (17-6, 11-1; Last Ranking: No. 2)
No. 2 Texas Tech (18-5, 9-3; Last Ranking: No. 1)
No. 3 Houston (19-4, 11-1; Last Ranking: 3)
No. 4 Iowa State (18-5, 8-4; Last Ranking: 4)
No. 5 Baylor (15-8, 7-5; Last Ranking: 5)
No. 6 Kansas (16-7, 7-5, Last Ranking: 6)
No. 7 West Virginia (15-8, 6-6; Last Ranking: No. 7)
No. 8 Kansas State (12-11, 6-6; Last Ranking: No. 10)
The Wildcats actually don’t have bubble status yet. They’re not even a team ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi is considering right now. But, as the saying goes, they’re in position to be in position. After five straight wins K-State is back above .500 and up to No. 73 in NCAA NET, so there is still work to do.
Next up? A home game with Arizona, perhaps the hottest team in the league outside of Kansas State. Win that game and, well, things get really interesting.
Related: Five Biggest Takeaways From Saturday’s Big 12 Basketball Games
No. 9 BYU (15-8, 6-6; Last Ranking: No. 8)
This week hurt the Cougars, with back-to-back losses to Arizona and Cincinnati after winning four straight games. And it’s only going to get tougher. Up next is West Virginia, followed by Kansas State, Kansas and Arizona again.
The Cougars are entering the stretch that will define their NCAA Tournament hopes. In Friday’s Bracketology they were on the right side of the bubble, but one of the last four teams in the field.
Their NET as of Sunday was 42, but the Cougars dropped six spots after the loss to the Bearcats. BYU is 2-5 on the road and 2-5 against Quad 1 teams. On the good side, the Cougars don’t have a loss to a Quad 3 or 4 team. Those can be killers when you’re on the bubble.
If BYU wins two of the next four games, it can hang in there. Any less than that and I think it will be a struggle to get into the field.
No. 10 TCU (12-11, 5-7; Last Ranking: No. 11)
No. 11 Cincinnati (14-9, 4-8; Last Ranking: No. 15)
As bad as this week was for BYU, it was a good week for the Bearcats. They snapped a four-game losing streak and beat two bubble teams, UCF and BYU, which can be considered by the committee. Right now, per ESPN, Cincinnati is being considered for the bubble. So, every win helps.
The Bearcats are ranked No. 50 in NET, and the BYU win helped nudge them up a notch. But what is really hurting them is their record in Quad 1 games — 1-7. In every other quadrant Cincy is in great shape, but that’s the one that matters most when you’re on the bubble.
In the 18-game format, the fewest games a Big 12 team won in conference and still made the field was seven. In a 20-game format the Bearcats are probably going to need at least eight. It’s possible. But it’s critical the Bearcats win some Quad 1 games, and that means beating some combination of Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor or Houston.
No. 12 Utah (13-10, 5-7; Last Ranking: No. 12)
No. 13 UCF (13-10, 4-8; Last Ranking: No. 9)
UCF was among the first four teams out on Friday and the loss on Saturday to Baylor did not help matters. The Knights still aren’t healthy and they’re now in a four-game slide. They’re in a slightly better position than Cincinnati, but their NET ranking is lower at No. 71. The reason? UCF is 3-7 against Quad 1 teams. That is what is keeping the Knights afloat.
There aren’t many Quad 1 chances left either, with only Iowa State and West Virginia remaining. It’s imperative that the Knights win everything else if they can’t pull off an upset.
No. 14 Oklahoma State (12-10, 4-8; Last Ranking: No. 13)
No. 15 Arizona State (12-10, 3-9; Last Ranking: No. 14)
The Sun Devils are among the teams being considered for the bubble by Lunardi and at this point I have no clue why. They’ve lost three straight games, and their only impressive league win is against West Virginia. They’re hanging in their because they have three Quad 1 wins and are ranked No. 59 in NET.
I would imagine ASU will drop out of consideration for the bubble this week. The Sun Devils have four ranked games ahead — Houston, Arizona and two with Texas Tech. Unless ASU wins three of the four, I don’t see a path for them to make March Madness.
No. 16 Colorado (9-14, 0-12; Last Ranking: No. 16)
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
