The Big 12 women’s basketball regular season is down to just two games before the entire league heads to Kansas City for the conference tournament.
The Big 12 women’s tournament starts on March 5. By next Sunda, we will know the entire tournament field. But the field is starting to solidify a bit.
Here is what I’m pretty sure is accurate:
Big 12 Women’s Basketball Tournament Seeding Takes Shape With Just Two Games Left
Last Updated: February 23, 2025 | 4:34 PM
The regular season in Big 12 women’s basketball is nearing its end, and only two games remain for each team. As March approaches, the postseason picture is beginning to take shape, with seeding for the Big 12 Tournament slowly becoming clearer. The tournament tips off March 5 in Kansas City, and teams across the league are either solidifying their spots or still fighting for better positioning.
The bracket breaks down into three key tiers: teams earning a double bye (Seeds 1–4), those landing a single bye (Seeds 5–8), and the rest preparing for first-round matchups (Seeds 9–16).
Here’s where things stand, and what could shift in the final stretch of the regular season.
Seeds 1–4: Double Byes to the Quarterfinals
Current Seeding:
- TCU (14-2)
- Baylor (14-2)
- Kansas State (13-3)
- Oklahoma State (12-4)
No changes in the top four this week. TCU made a big statement with a dominant win over West Virginia, reaffirming their status as the conference’s top team. If TCU and Baylor both win their midweek games, their head-to-head matchup this Sunday in Waco will determine who earns the No. 1 seed.
Kansas State looks sharp again with Ayoka Lee back in the lineup, and the timing couldn’t be better. Oklahoma State handled business at home, maintaining its hold on the final double-bye spot.
Both TCU and Baylor have clinched double byes already thanks to head-to-head wins over fifth-place Utah. Even if either drops both remaining games, they cannot fall below the fourth seed.
Kansas State can clinch a double bye with a midweek win against Baylor. Oklahoma State still has work to do, but if it finishes with the same record as Utah, it owns the tiebreaker thanks to last week’s win over the Utes.
Seeds 5–8: Single Byes to the Second Round
Projected Seeds:
- West Virginia (11-5)
- Utah (12-4)
- Iowa State (10-6)
- Colorado (8-8)
Utah is still technically in the hunt for a top-four finish, but it needs help. A strong finish paired with a loss from Oklahoma State could push the Utes into a double bye.
West Virginia and Iowa State have both clinched single byes. ISU holds key tiebreaker wins over both Colorado and Arizona, which gives them a secure grip on the No. 7 seed even in a tight three-way race.
Colorado remains eighth for now, but Arizona is right on their heels. The Buffaloes’ earlier win over the Wildcats could be the deciding factor if both finish with the same record.
Seeds 9–16: First-Round Matchups
Projected Seeds:
- Arizona (8-8)
- Cincinnati (7-9)
- Kansas (5-11)
- BYU (4-12)
- UCF (3-13)
- Arizona State (3-13)
- Texas Tech (3-13)
- Houston (1-15)
Arizona just missed out on a single bye and likely won’t be able to catch Colorado without some help. A midweek win could help their case, but Colorado owns the tiebreaker.
UCF, Arizona State, and Texas Tech are locked in a three-way tie at the bottom of the standings. Based on round-robin results, UCF holds the advantage at 2-0, followed by Arizona State (1-1), and Texas Tech (0-2). Since these teams won’t face each other again before the tournament, these rankings are expected to stand.
BYU is barely holding onto the 12th seed, but if they drop both games and UCF pulls out a win, those positions could flip — though UCF would still need help due to its earlier loss to BYU.
What to Watch Heading Into the Final Week
As we head into the last two games of the season, there’s still plenty on the line. The race for the No. 1 seed between Baylor and TCU could come down to the wire. Oklahoma State and Utah are locked in a battle for the final double bye. Meanwhile, Colorado, Arizona, and Iowa State are fighting for single-bye territory.
This year’s Big 12 Women’s Tournament is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory — and the final stretch of the regular season could shake up the bracket more than ever.
Two teams have clinched double byes, though their seeding could change;
Three teams have clinched single byes, and two of those teams could still challenge for a double bye;
The No. 8 seed could be the most hotly-contested seed in the final week, since it carries with it the final single bye.
As a reminder, we used the Big 12 rules on the web site for tiebreakers.
If the Big 12 women’s tournament started today, here is how the tournament would be seeded.
Seeds Nos. 1-4: Double Byes
No. 1 TCU (14-2)
No. 2 Baylor (14-2)
No. 3 Kansas State (13-3)
No. 4 Oklahoma State (12-4)
No changes here. If you watched the TCU-West Virginia game, you came away with little doubt that the Horned Frogs are the league’s best team. TCU and Baylor may get a chance to settle it on Sunday in Waco. If both win at mid-week, then that game will be for the top seed.
Kansas State got Ayoka Lee back, and all looked right with the world again. She gets a week to ramp up for KC. The timing couldn’t be much better. Oklahoma State took care of Colorado at home.
As for double byes, TCU and Baylor have both clinched one as they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over fifth-place Utah (12-4) and the worst either TCU or Baylor can finish is 14-4. The best Utah can finish is 14-4. There is also no chance of a three-way tie between the three because TCU and Baylor play each other. The Horned Frogs or the Bears could lose both of their games, tie with Utah and still get no worse than the No. 4 seed.
Kansas State can clinch one if it wins against Baylor at mid-week. Oklahoma State has work to do right up to the weekend. Remember — if OSU and Utah end up with the same record, the Cowgirls get the higher seed due to their win last week over the Utes.
Seeds Nos. 5-8: Single Byes
No. 6 Utah (12-4)
No. 5 West Virginia (11-5)
No. 7 Iowa State (10-6)
No. 8 Colorado (8-8)
Unlike the past week, this was easy. Utah is No. 5 but can still slip into the Top 4 if the Utes win out and someone loses, most likely OSU. West Virginia is the clear No. 6 seed, and Iowa State is the clear No. 7. Colorado remains No. 8, thanks to its head-to-head win over Arizona.
Teams that receive single byes don’t play until the second round. With two games remaining, Utah and West Virginia have clinched single byes. So has Iowa State. Why? Because the Cyclones have beaten both Colorado and No. 9 seed Arizona. They could end up in a three-way tie, but ISU would have a 2-0 record in a three-way tiebreaker and take the single bye.
The seeding order on this tier is still up for grabs, at least going into the mid-week games.
First Round (Seeds 9-16)
No. 9 Arizona (8-8)
No. 10 Cincinnati (7-9)
No. 11 Kansas (5-11)
No. 12 BYU (4-12)
No. 13 UCF (3-13)
No. 14 Arizona State (3-13)
No. 15 Texas Tech (3-13)
No. 16 Houston (1-15)
Arizona is the No. 9 seed by virtue of its loss to Colorado. That is what is going to keep the Wildcats out of single bye territory if both teams keep winning.
Arizona State, Texas Tech and UCF created a rather insane logjam at the bottom. Here’s the round-robin record:
UCF: 2-0
Arizona State: 1-1
Texas Tech: 0-2
These three teams are done playing each other. So, if they remain tied, these seedings will hold to the Big 12 Tournament. UCF is the best positioned for the No. 13 seed. The Knights will have a hard time sliding up to No. 12. They lost to BYU earlier this season, so UCF would need BYU to lose both remaining games and would need to win one to overtake them.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
