With three games remaining in the Big 12 men’s basketball regular season, one thing is certain — the Houston Cougars are in complete control.
After their win over Texas Tech on Monday night, the Cougars wrapped up no worse than a tie for the conference title, as they have a three-game lead over second-place Arizona.
But Houston also wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. Here’s why.
The only team that can catch the Cougars is the Wildcats, who are three games back. Houston has already beaten Arizona, and the two teams don’t play each other again. So even if the Cougars crater and the Wildcats roll and they end up tied at 16-4, Houston still gets the No. 1 seed by virtue of the tiebreaker.
Texas Tech was the last stand, the last shot to make the race for the top seed interesting. We’re done with that. As Seth Davis might say, “Sharpie.”
But, as for the rest of the bracket, we have some delightful chaos brewing. So, let’s dig in.
As a reminder, we used the Big 12 rules on the web site for tiebreakers.
If the Big 12 men’s tournament started today, here is how the tournament would be seeded.
Seeds Nos. 1-4: Double Byes
No. 1 Houston (16-1) — Locked
No. 2 Arizona (13-4)
No. 3 Texas Tech (12-5)
No. 5 BYU (11-6)
In the words of Monica Geller, “It just GOT Interesting!”
Arizona is a clear No. 2 right now, but it’s not a lock, not with Iowa State and BYU two games back with three games to play. Texas Tech is a clear No. 3, but same goes with the Red Raiders, especially since we know Tech lost to Iowa State.
Saturday’s game between Arizona and Iowa State at Hilton looms large here. If Arizona wins and BYU loses then lock in Arizona as the No. 2 seed. That helps Texas Tech, too, though the Red Raiders probably won’t be locked in at No. 3 with just a win. But we’ll do the math to be sure either way.
In fact, Iowa State’s next two games have huge ramifications on this tier. After the Wildcats, the Cyclones host the BYU Cougars. At the moment, the Cyclones and the Cougs are tied for fourth. Next week’s game will be their only meeting. So, we can’t apply a head-to-head tiebreaker. So, the fourth seed will be determined on Tuesday.
But this is about RIGHT NOW. And, right now, BYU would be No. 4. The next tiebreaker after head-to-head is record against the top team in the standings and then work down until someone gains an advantage. Both lost to Houston. BYU beat Arizona and Iowa State lost to Arizona. Advantage BYU — for now.
Seeds Nos. 5-8: Single Byes
No. 5 Iowa State (11-6)
No. 6 Kansas (10-7)
No. 7 TCU (8-9)
No. 8 Baylor (8-9)
Kansas left us with no drama. We can’t say the same for TCU, Baylor and West Virginia, which are all 8-9 right now. First tiebreaker is round-robin record:
TCU: 2-1
Baylor: 1-1
West Virginia: 1-2
So, TCU’s loss at West Virginia didn’t hurt the Horned Frogs. But another loss to Baylor might and the Bears meet the Horned Frogs again next Tuesday. WVU doesn’t have another meeting with either team, so the Mountaineers are at a clear disadvantage in a three-way tie.
For now, TCU and Baylor have the final two single byes. West Virginia is still in the running, but it will need help.
First Round (Seeds 9-16)
No. 9 West Virginia (8-9)
No. 10 Utah (7-10)
No. 11 Kansas State (7-10)
No. 12 Cincinnati (7-10)
No. 13 Oklahoma State (6-11)
No. 14 UCF (6-11)
No. 15 Arizona State (4-13)
No. 16 Colorado (2-15)
Let’s break the Utah-Kansas State-Cincinnati tie first. Round robin records:
Utah: 2-1
Kansas State: 1-1
Cincinnati: 1-2
For now, Utah has the edge and they’re done with these teams. The Utes split with Cincinnati and beat Kansas State.
Kansas State and Cincinnati drew each other twice and Kansas State won the first meeting. So, the Bearcats can really help themselves with a win next week.
But, for now, Utah has the highest seed of the three. Technically, all three can crash the single bye party but each needs a lot of help to do it.
The last four seeds are eliminated from contention for a single bye. Oklahoma State has the higher seed over UCF after beating the Knights in the only meeting between the two teams. Neither can be the last seed with three games left.
Arizona State could still slide into the No. 16 seed, but it would need to lose all three remaining games and Colorado would need to win all three remaining games. Why? If the Sun Devils and Buffs end up tied, ASU will get the higher seed as it won both meetings with CU.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
