The Big 12 learned on Sunday that it will have seven men’s teams in the NCAA Tournament, which starts on Tuesday with First Four action in Dayton, Ohio.
None of the Big 12 teams will be in the First Four, so their action will start either Thursday or Friday, depending on where they were bracketed. We have a long way to go before the start of the tournament. But with the bracket now out, here are my initial thoughts.
HOUSTON’S PATH TO THE SWEET 16
I think the Cougars received a pretty reasonable path to the second weekend. The opener is against SIU-Edwardsville, which is in the tournament for the first time. Then, it’s either Georgia or Gonzaga, the latter of which is trying to extend its streak of Sweet 16 appearances. Either team is dangerous for the Cougars, but I think they’re a solid bet to get into the second weekend.
MOST FAVORABLE SWEET 16 NON-HOUSTON DRAW
Right now, it’s Texas Tech. Seeded No. 3 in the West, the Red Raiders get UNC-Wilmington first, and then if they advance, they get either Missouri or Drake. The Bulldogs are a possible upset pick in the first round.
I liked Iowa State’s path when it flashed up. Also a No. 3 seed, the Cyclones get Lipscomb in the first round and then Ole Miss, San Diego State or North Carolina in the second round. Iowa State would be favored in any scenario.
But, with Keshon Gilbert now ruled out, ISU’s path is less favorable, but not impossible, to get to the Sweet 16. As for Tech, once we know more about Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian we can better assess. My guess is one will play.
BAYLOR’S AWFUL DRAW
That can’t be what the Bears were looking for. In the first round Baylor gets Mississippi State, a solid team that can give them trouble. If the Bears can get out of the first round, the Bears would, most likely, get Duke.
I mean that’s rough, especially with Baylor’s lack of height due to injury. I just don’t see a path for the Bears to get there — unless Cooper Flagg is less available than we think he will be. Even then, the Blue Devils won an ACC title without him.
KANSAS’ MADE-FOR-TV DRAW
If you were a Kansas fan, you wanted no worse than a No. 7 seed. The Jayhawks got it. But, man, what a draw the first weekend.
First, Bill Self faces his old buddy John Calipari, who has Arkansas in the tournament at No. 10. If Kansas win, the Jayhawks would, most likely, get No. 2 St. John’s led by Rick Pitino.
Three legendary coaches in the same pod? Insane. Kansas got the seed it needed, but not the draw. I think Kansas is out the first weekend.
BYU’s UNDERSEED
I felt BYU deserved a No. 5 seed after how they finished the season. The committee disagreed and put the Cougars at No. 6. That draw is rough.
VCU is a quality mid-major that can give teams fits. The Cougars’ likely second-round opponent is Wisconsin, which can go basket-for-basket with BYU.
A No. 5 seed would have been a bit more favorable. As hot as BYU has been, I can see them winning the first-round game and playing an epic second-rounder with the Badgers.
BEST FIRST-ROUND GAME
Arizona got the No. 4 seed and an intriguing opponent in Akron out of the MAC. Their coach, John Groce, has led the Zips to the NCAA Tournament two of the last three years. They’ll be a hard out for the Wildcats. It’ll be a trendy upset pick.
But, I think Arizona will win and face Oregon. I saw Oregon in person earlier this year. The former PAC-12 rivals would be a great second-round game.
WEST VIRGINIA GOT ROBBED
I rarely say that sort of thing, but the Mountaineers should have gotten in. If we’re looking at NET, they’re No. 51 with a 4-7 road record, a 2-2 record at neutral sites, six Quad 1 wins, a 4-3 record in Quad 2 games and no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses
WVU was the First Team Out. North Carolina was the Last Team In.
The Tar Heels’ NET is higher at 36. They are better on the road at 6-6, but the same at neutral sites at 4-4. Here’s the rub. The Tar Heels are 1-12 in Quad 1 games. I don’t care about the rest. UNC won one game against other Quad 1 teams. To me, that’s disqualifying.
If WVU had one Quad 1 win, this wouldn’t even be a discussion. The committee’s reasoning seemed to boil down to Tucker DeVries being out, but he’s been injured since December. The player availability argument falls flat.
The committee got this wrong. And the fact that the committee is run by UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham just looks awful to everyone in Morgantown.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
