It’s finally the time of year when we all sit down and fill out our brackets for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Every year, millions of basketball fans begin their week with a neatly organized and strategically picked bracket, void of red sharpie, crinkle lines, and angry scribble marks.
Then, after a few days, or even just a game or two, those same pieces of paper become a piece of artwork. Thanks to the unpredictable nature of March Madness, it’s nearly impossible to pick a perfect bracket. Nobody has ever filled out a perfect bracket, and just one person has picked correctly through the Sweet 16.
However, the data provides clues for potential upsets, and if you look hard enough, you might just find some of them that nobody sees coming. After compiling an in-depth statistical analysis of every team in the field, here are the five most likely first-round upsets we will see later this week.
No. 12 Colorado State Over No. 5 Memphis
Where else could you start a conversation about upsets besides taking a 12-seed over a five-seed? It happens nearly every year, and Colorado State over Memphis feels like the best chance of that happening this year.
Colorado State is under-seeded, coming in at No. 45 in our Power Rankings but just a 12-seed in the tournament. Meanwhile, the Tigers are seeded way higher than they should be, coming in at No. 49 in our power rankings.
Memphis is weak in a few spots that should benefit CSU, most notably defensive rebounding (301st national) and turnovers (306th). This game feels like it should have the seeds flipped.
No. 12 Liberty Over No. 5 Oregon
The three-pointer has become a bigger part of college basketball than ever before, and the Liberty Flames might just have the best group of shooters in this year’s field. Hitting at 39.5% from three (fifth nationally), the Flames can pour it in from deep, giving them the second best effective FG% (58.4%) in the country.
Meanwhile, Oregon comes into the tournament playing good basketball, but their weakness, at least in their most recent losses, has been the three-ball. Michigan State has given Oregon each of their last two losses and was 15-for-33 (45.5%) from beyond the arc in each of those 10-point victories.
Additionally, the Flames have the third-best 3PT% defense (28.0%) in the country. So, if Liberty can turn this into a late-night shootout, the Ducks could be in big trouble.
No. 12 UC San Diego Over No. 5 Michigan
Another classic 12-over-5 upset in the making could be UC San Diego over the Michigan Wolverines, and it all comes down to possessions.
UCSD is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to taking care of the basketball and forcing turnovers on the other end of the court. Their offensive turnover rate (13.4%) is the seventh-lowest in the country while their defensive turnover rate (23.3%) is second best in all of basketball.
Combine that with Michigan giving the ball away on 19.8% of their possessions (328th nationally) and relatively similar efficiencies elsewhere, and you’ve got all the makings of a game that goes against the grain.
No. 11 VCU Over No. 6 BYU
The BYU Cougars won nine straight games before bowing out to Houston in the Big 12 Championship, and it appeared they might be a popular pick to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament with how they’ve been shooting the ball, ranking seventh nationally in effective FG percentage (57.2%).
However, drawing a vastly under-seeded VCU team in the first round is a nightmare scenario for BYU. The Rams have one of the best overall defenses in the country, but their biggest strength is effective FG% defense (44.4%), where they rank first in the country.
BYU has been able to shoot the lights out of the gym over the last month, but they’ll be hard-pressed to find their usual success against the Rams on Thursday.
No. 14 Montana Over No. 3 Wisconsin
And for the biggest upset of the first round, we’re going with the 14-seeded Montana Grizzlies taking down No. 3 Wisconsin in the East Region. Greg Gard has the Badgers among the top seeds once again, but that’s been more trouble than it’s worth in recent years.
Wisconsin has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament games against double-digit seeds, and their draw this year could be particularly problematic.
Montana has the third-best shooting percentage of any team in the country (49.6%) and has won 14 of their last 15 games coming into the tournament. That smells like all kinds of trouble for the Badgers.
