Every year, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament becomes “March Madness” when lower-seeded teams take down double-digit favorites and become instant media darlings.
The rise of “Cinderella teams” is one of the best parts of this tournament, and this year, there are many candidates who could make a serious run.
Which teams do the analytics say are truly capable of making a Cinderella run to the second weekend? Let’s take a look! But first:
Who Qualifies as a “Cinderella?”
Well, it’s a somewhat complicated answer. Still, in general, a Cinderella team would be a team that advances to the second weekend—the Sweet 16 or beyond—and upsets a high seed in the early round to do so.
For example, last year’s Cinderella was No. 11 NC State, who made a run to the Final Four with wins over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 14 Oakland, No. 2 Marquette, and No. 4 Duke.
Had they lost in the Round of 32, it wouldn’t have met the criteria, but advancing to the second weekend and well beyond that makes them a perfect candidate.
So, according to our data, these are the teams that could make a surprise run to the Sweet Sixteen.
No. 12 UC San Diego
Record: 30-4 | Region: South
First Round Matchup: No. 5 Michigan; Thursday, March 20 (Denver)
Number to Know: 1.82 (Assist/Turnover Ratio)
The UCSD Tritons are making their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance and could have some beginner’s luck—if that’s what you want to call it. With the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio (1.82) and top-ranked turnover margin in the country (7.2), the Tritons are the worst nightmare for a turnover-prone team—a team like Michigan.
The Wolverines turn the ball over on 19.8% of their offensive possessions (328th nationally), and will need to keep UC San Diego’s defense from controlling the tempo of their first-round matchup. Additionally, if the Tritons can advance past Michigan, they’ll have a good chance of seeing No. 13 Yale, and even if Texas A&M advances, the Aggies are the worst shooting team in the tournament field.
No. 11 Drake
Record: 30-3 | Region: West
First Round Matchup: No. 6 Missouri; Thursday, March 20 (Wichita)
Number to Know: 58.4 (Pts. allowed per game)
Ben McCollum has helped maintain the excellence that we’ve seen from the Drake Bulldogs over recent years, and in doing so, they won 30 games in a season for the first time in program history. The Bulldogs play a slower tempo than any other team in the tournament and are among the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country. Additionally, they rank 11th nationally in free throw rate, which negates one of Missouri’s biggest strengths—the Tigers ranks second nationally in free throw rate.
Despite all of that, the Bulldogs’ biggest strength is their defense, which allows just 58.4 points per game. That’s good enough for first nationally, topping even the stifling defense that we’ve seen from Houston all year long.
Missouri’s high-flying offensive attack will have trouble playing at the tempo it wants to, and that could be problematic at the end of the day. As long as the Bulldogs can keep their offense going, Drake should be able to make a run to the second weekend.
No. 6 BYU
Record: 24-9 | Region: East
First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU; Thursday, March 20 (Denver)
Number to Know: 57.2% (Effective FG%)
Yes, it’s hard to call a six-seed a “Cinderella,” but when you consider how far the Cougars could go in this tournament, it makes sense to label them accordingly. BYU was on a nine-game winning streak before it fell to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals, and with Richie Saunders shooting nearly 51% from the field, the Cougars are capable of lighting up the scoreboard.
They’ll have a rather tricky matchup to get things started, as No. 11 VCU is No. 32 in our power rankings and vastly under-seeded. However, if they can get out of the first round, there’s reason to believe they can make a run to the Elite Eight, or even further.
Their East Region draw puts Wisconsin in their path, and makes for a very winnable matchup. Plus, Alabama forward Grant Nelson is dealing with an injury and could be short-handed in a hypothetical track meet. BYU isn’t your typical Cinderella candidate, but if they make it to San Antonio, it would be hard not to call them an underdog story.
No. 13 High Point
Record: 29-5 | Region: Midwest
First Round Matchup: No. 4 Purdue; Thursday, March 20 (Providence)
Number to Know: 14 (Winning streak)
High Point is one of those teams that most tend to overlook when filling out their bracket, especially since they’re matched up with a Purdue team that just went to the National Championship game last season. However, this year’s Boilermakers aren’t nearly as stout defensively, and that’s something the Panthers can take advantage of.
With plenty of talent and experience in the backcourt, plus a legit seven-footer in Juslin Bodo Bodo, High Point can get the better of Purdue in a high-scoring affair. Plus, the Panthers come into this tournament on a 14-game winning streak, and sometimes confidence is all it takes to push a team over the top.
Clemson will have its hands full with McNeese in their first-round matchup, and if the Tigers were to fall, High Point could be a surprising inclusion in the Sweet 16.
