The Big 12 Conference will send seven men’s teams into the NCAA Tournament, which starts on Thursday with first-round games all over the country.
The first-round games can, at times, end up being utterly lopsided or end up being some of the most competitive games in the tournament. In some ways, you never really know what you’re going to get.
But the goal of this piece is to rank each of the seven first-round games from least competitive to most competitive. So, let’s go, starting with what is likely to be the least competitive game on the slate.
7. Houston vs. SIU-Edwardsville
Yes, one must now be wary of the potential 1-16 upset. But SIUE has never been to the NCAA Tournament before. They won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament title and won a D-I record 22 games.
The Cougars may come out sluggish, as they did when they faced No. 16 seed Colorado in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals. But, by game’s end, it’s doubtful this contest will be competitive.
6. Texas Tech vs. UNC-Wilmington
The Skyhawks are an extremely balanced team, but so are the Red Raiders. But here’s the real problem.
Texas Tech is fifth in Ken Pom offensive efficiency and UNCW is No. 184 in defensive efficiency. The Skyhawks have only played one high-major program this year and lost to then No. 1 Kansas by 18 points.
It feels like the Red Raiders may have control of this one by halftime, especially if both Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian play meaningful minutes.
5. Baylor vs. Mississippi State
It’s been a grind for Baylor the last month of so as the Bears have been short-handed. The week of rest has surely done them some good. Forward Norchad Omier has had an incredible six weeks playing the role of an undersized five.
The problem is Mississippi State can run a pair of 6-foot-10 forwards at Baylor, along with a 6-foot-7 forward. Combined, the trio average more than 27 points and 16 rebounds per game for the Bulldogs. It’s the kind of depth that has the potential to overwhelm the Bears, especially if Omier gets into foul trouble early.
4. Iowa State vs. Lipscomb
Lipscomb has four players that average more than 11 points per game, led by Jacob Ognacevic, who averages 20.1 points per game. This is a strong offensive team that also has a Top 100 defensive rating per Ken Pom.
The Bisons’ only two high-major games were losses to Arkansas and Kentucky by at least 16 points. The Cyclones are banged up, but they are a Top 10 defensive team in the nation and will keep this game from being that intriguing down the stretch.
3. Kansas vs. Arkansas
The coaching matchup alone may be worth the price of admission, as Bill Self leads the Jayhawks and John Calipari leads the Razorbacks. Boogie Fland should return for Arkansas, which boosts the potential competitiveness of this game.
But, both teams have been maddeningly inconsistent all season. Kansas, as I’ve told both our podcaster and owner, Pete Mundo, and KXNO radio in Des Moines, just cannot be trusted to be consistent.
It COULD be a great game. It’s more likely to be merely a good game.
2. BYU vs. VCU
The VCU Rams enter this game with four players that average double figures, all of which are guards. That could present defensive matchup problems for the Cougars.
You can go eight deep on BYU’s roster and find a player that averages at least seven points, led by Richie Saunders’ 16 points per game. But the interior player of Keba Keita and Fousseyni Traore could be the difference here.
VCU has two high-major wins and pushed Seton Hall to overtime before losing. The Rams are also a Top 25 Ken Pom defensive team. BYU is a Top 12 offensive team. This has the potential to be a highly competitive game.
1. Arizona vs. Akron
For entertainment and competitive value, this could be the best first-round game among the seven Big 12 teams. Arizona is No. 12 in offensive efficiency per KenPom.com. Akron is No. 66, one spot behind St. John’s. When it comes to pure-scoring offense, Akron ranks No. 8 with 84.6 points per game, while Arizona ranks No. 21 at 81.7 points per game.
This game should not only be the most entertaining and competitive game of the seven involving the Big 12 it could be one of the best of the first round.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
