The Big 12 Conference has seven guaranteed games in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, which starts on Thursday with first-round games all over the country.
The first-round games can, at times, end up being utterly lopsided or end up being some of the most competitive games in the tournament. For the Big 12, there’s a healthy mix of intriguing matchups, virtual tossups, and games that should end in lopsided fashion.
So, how should each of the games end up playing out? After taking a deep-dive into the statistics for every matchup, we have some projections that should help ease your mind when it comes to filling out your bracket.
(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU Edwardsville
INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, Kansas | Thu, March 20 (1:00 p.m.) | TBS
Line: Houston (-28.5)
| 1 Houston (30-4) | 16 SIUE (22-11) | |
| NET | #3 | #216 |
| KenPom | #3 | #218 |
| Off. Rk | 10 | 255 |
| Def. Rk | 2 | 160 |
| Tempo | 360 | 261 |
| SOS | 24 | 357 |
| Eff. FG% | 52.7% | 48.9% |
| OReb% | 36.1% | 31.8% |
| FTRate | 28.2% | 33.1% |
| MOV | 15.8 | 2.6 |
| EPR | 1.021 | 0.971 |
| TO% | 14.6% | 17.1% |
Houston should have little issue in this game, as their second-ranked defense and slow tempo should allow them to control this game with relative ease. There will be no Fairleigh Dickinson or UMBC vibes in this one.
PROJECTION: HOUSTON 86, SIUE 52
BYU vs. VCU
Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado | Thu, March 20 (3:05 p.m.) | TNT
Line: BYU (-2.5)
| 6 BYU (24-9) | 11 VCU (28-6) | |
| NET | 24 | 31 |
| KenPom | 24 | 30 |
| ORtg | 11 | 41 |
| DRtg | 68 | 23 |
| Tempo | 185 | 235 |
| SOS | 51 | 123 |
| Eff. FG% | 57.2% | 52.4% |
| OReb% | 33.3% | 36.7% |
| FTRate | 30.2% | 32.2% |
| MOV | 11.0 | 14.2 |
| EPR | 0.959 | 1.010 |
| TO% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
If you’re tuning in specifically to watch a closely contested and highly competitive first-round game, you won’t want to miss this one. VCU checks in as the No. 23 defense in the country, while BYU comes in with the No. 11 offense. Meanwhile, the Rams’ offense (No. 41) and the Cougars’ defense (No. 68) match up relatively evenly as well.
The Cougars have been shooting as well as anyone in the country over the last couple of weeks, that is before they ran into Houston. If BYU can get back into its offensive groove in Denver, they’ll have a good shot at moving on. But, this is truly a coinflip game.
PROJECTION: BYU 76, VCU 74
Kansas vs. Arkansas
Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI | Thu, March 20 (6:10 p.m.) | CBS
Line: Kansas (-4.5)
| 7 Kansas (21-12) | 10 Arkansas (20-13) | |
| NET | 20 | 40 |
| KenPom | 21 | 40 |
| ORtg | 48 | 73 |
| DRtg | 11 | 20 |
| Tempo | 113 | 67 |
| SOS | 12 | 23 |
| Eff. FG% | 53.1% | 52.7% |
| OReb% | 30.4% | 27.6% |
| FTRate | 24.3% | 35.5% |
| MOV | 6.9 | 5.5 |
| EPR | 0.961 | 0.943 |
| TO% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
Bill Self vs. John Calipari is a rare instance of future Hall of Famers facing off in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and that alone will be worth tuning in for. Kansas is the better team offensively, and they also have the slightest advantage on defense.
Where the Jayhawks could get into trouble is Arkansas’s ability to get to the line, with over a 10% difference in their free throw rate. These are two of the most inconsistent teams in the country, so anything could happen here.
PROJECTION: KANSAS 74, ARKANSAS 71
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNC Wilmington
INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, Kansas | Thu, March 20 (9:10 p.m.) | truTV
Line: Texas Tech (-15.5)
| 3 Texas Tech (25-8) | 14 UNCW (27-7) | |
| NET | 7 | 102 |
| KenPom | 7 | 107 |
| ORtg | 6 | 84 |
| DRtg | 37 | 184 |
| Tempo | 281 | 285 |
| SOS | 50 | 284 |
| Eff. FG% | 55.5% | 52.2% |
| OReb% | 34.3% | 35.5% |
| FTRate | 29.7% | 37.8% |
| MOV | 13.9 | 6.8 |
| EPR | 0.996 | 0.997 |
| TO% | 14.8% | 16.0% |
From a strictly statistical perspective, Texas Tech and UNCW play a similar brand of basketball. Their offense is their strength, but they play well defensively, too. They collect rebounds on the offensive glass and have good play inside and out.
The difference is that UNCW hasn’t played many teams like Texas Tech, so the numbers can be a bit misleading. The Red Raiders should take control of this game before halftime, and JT Toppin should have some big numbers before taking a seat.
PROJECTION: TEXAS TECH 81, UNCW 63
(9) Baylor vs. (8) Mississippi State
Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC | Fri, March 21 (11:15 a.m.) | CBS
Line: Mississippi State (-1.5)
| 9 Baylor (19-14) | 8 Mississippi State (21-12) | |
| NET | 30 | 34 |
| KenPom | 29 | 32 |
| ORtg | 16 | 23 |
| DRtg | 58 | 47 |
| Tempo | 315 | 125 |
| SOS | 10 | 14 |
| Eff. FG% | 51.5% | 51.7% |
| OReb% | 35.6% | 34.1% |
| FTRate | 31.0% | 31.6% |
| MOV | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| EPR | 0.999 | 1.011 |
| TO% | 16.1% | 15.1% |
As the seeding would suggest, this is a 50/50 ball game, and the statistics show that to be the case as well. Just four spots separate them in the NET rankings, and just three spots in the KenPom. Baylor has a slightly better offense, whole Mississippi State has the slightly better defense.
This game is going to come down to foul trouble, and if Baylor can stay away from that, they’ll have a good shot at pulling the slight upset. However, Mississippi State’s size could present issues inside, and that will be the difference.
PROJECTION: MISSISSIPPI STATE 77, BAYLOR 76
Iowa State vs. Lipscomb
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI | Fri, March 21 (12:30 p.m.) | TNT
Line: Iowa State (-14.5)
| 3 Iowa State (24-9) | 14 Lipscomb (25-9) | |
| NET | 9 | 84 |
| KenPom | 10 | 83 |
| ORtg | 20 | 75 |
| DRtg | 9 | 100 |
| Tempo | 102 | 255 |
| SOS | 36 | 282 |
| Eff. FG% | 54.2% | 55.9% |
| OReb% | 32.2% | 24.1% |
| FTRate | 38.5% | 31.4% |
| MOV | 12.3 | 9.9 |
| EPR | 0.958 | 0.950 |
| TO% | 16.9% | 14.4% |
If you’ve got an uneasy feeling about this game, there’s plenty of reason to justify it. Keshon Gilbert is out for the rest of the season after leading the Cyclones in assists and having the second-most points. That alone is enough to make you weary of ISU. Add in the fact that Lipscomb ranks 22nd nationally in effective FG% (55.9%) and has three guys shooting better than 40% from three, and there are red flags popping up everywhere.
Iowa State is a great team, and they’ve still got plenty of firepower with Curtis Jones, Joshua Jefferson, and Milan Momcilovic all playing well. Tamin Lipsey will be back in the lineup too, which helps a ton. We’re rolling with the Cyclones here, but it’s probably going to be a heck of a lot tighter than ISU fans would like.
PROJECTION: IOWA STATE 74, LIPSCOMB 70
Arizona vs. Akron
Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA | Fri, March 21 (6:35 p.m.) | truTV
Line: Arizona (-14.5)
| 4 Arizona (22-12) | 13 Akron (28-6) | |
| NET | 12 | 91 |
| KenPom | 14 | 99 |
| ORtg | 12 | 66 |
| DRtg | 33 | 183 |
| Tempo | 54 | 16 |
| SOS | 4 | 277 |
| Eff. FG% | 52.9% | 55.4% |
| OReb% | 35.9% | 33.0% |
| FTRate | 36.6% | 26.8% |
| MOV | 9.9 | 8.2 |
| EPR | 0.987 | 0.972 |
| TO% | 16.2% | 16.6% |
The advanced analytics for this game might suggest a runaway game for the Wildcats, as their offensive and defensive efficiencies are much better than the Zips’. However, there are some games that are just better judged after the fact, and that feels very much like what we’ll get here.
Akron ranks eighth nationally with 84.6 points per game, and much of that has to do with the blistering pace (16th-fastest) that they play with. The Wildcats rank 21st with 81.7 points per game, so they’re more than capable of keeping up in a track meet, but can they match the three-point production, with the Zips shooting nearly 37% from deep?
PROJECTION: ARIZONA 89, AKRON 84
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
