The Big 12 is one of three conferences to have multiple teams left in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and on Thursday, the league will have three chances to advance to the Elite Eight—and yet another chance on Friday.
It won’t be easy, however, as the teams that advanced through the first weekend of March Madness are still alive for a reason.
So, how many Big 12 teams will survive the Round of 16 and advance to the Elite Eight? Let’s take a look at what our statistics suggest.
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama (-5.5)
Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025 | Time: 6:09 p.m. CT | TV Channel: CBS | Site: Prudential Center; Newark, NJ
BYU will enter the Sweet 16 as one of two Big 12 underdogs in this round of the tournament. The Cougars will face an Alabama team that can match their explosive offensive output, and does so with the fastest tempo in America.
Tale of the Tape
| (6) BYU | vs. | (2) Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 26-9 | W-L | 27-8 |
| 21 | Power Ranking | 6 |
| 24 | NET Rank | 6 |
| +23.11 (24) | KenPom | +30.12 (6) |
| 124.2 (9) | Off. Eff. | 126.7 (4) |
| 101.1 (72) | Def. Eff. | 96.6 (29) |
| 67.4 (178) | Adj. Tempo | 75.0 (1) |
| 57.2% (6) | Effective FG% | 56.6% (14) |
| 54.4% (15) | Rebound Rate | 53.8% (23) |
| 30.2% (270) | Free Throw Rate | 40.1% (25) |
| 37.3% (28) | 3-PT FG% | 35.0% (116) |
Alabama has faced the toughest schedule in America, and according to KenPom’s strength of schedule metrics, they’ve played the toughest offensive schedule of anyone. So, for their defensive numbers to stand where they are is impressive.
Meanwhile, BYU matches up almost step for step with the Crimson Tide offensively, aside from the Tide’s blazing offensive tempo. The Cougars have an edge in three-point shooting, offensive rebounding, and effective field goal percentage, albeit slight advantages in the latter two.
There will be points aplenty in this matchup, and with some slight advantages in key areas, I’ll take the Cougars to pull off an upset in a first-to-90 kind of game.
Pick: BYU
Confidence: 5/10
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 1 Duke (-9.5)
Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025 | Time: 8:39 p.m. CT | TV Channel: CBS | Site: Prudential Center; Newark, NJ
Arizona pulls the toughest matchup of any Big 12 team left in the tournament, as they’ll face a Duke team that’s won its first two NCAA Tournament games by an average margin of 33.5 points. Their latest victory: an 89-66 win over Baylor.
Tale of the Tape
| (4) Arizona | vs. | (1) Duke |
|---|---|---|
| 24-12 | W-L | 33-3 |
| 11 | Power Ranking | 1 |
| 12 | NET Rank | 1 |
| +26.33 (13) | KenPom | +39.00 (1) |
| 122.9 (13) | Off. Eff. | 129.2 (1) |
| 96.5 (28) | Def. Eff. | 90.2 (4) |
| 70.2 (49) | Adj. Tempo | 65.8 (270) |
| 53.3% (84) | Effective FG% | 57.9% (5) |
| 55.2% (10) | Rebound Rate | 55.6% (7) |
| 35.9% (91) | Free Throw Rate | 32.0% (202) |
| 33.4% (195) | 3-PT FG% | 38.1% (17) |
Caleb Love is coming off a 29-point performance against Oregon, and as a former UNC Tarheel, he’d love nothing more than to knock off the top-seeded Blue Devils and advance to the Elite Eight.
Unfortunately, it’s difficult to find a path to victory when taking a look at the numbers. Even in the areas where Arizona has been strong this season, Duke has been better, with the Blue Devils taking advantages in offensive and defensive efficiency, rebound rate,and effective field goal percentage.
The scary part about this matchup is Duke’s proficiency from behind the arc. Arizona ranks 304th nationally in opponent three-point FG made per game (8.6), and that could be very problematic with the way Duke can spread you out. Unfortunately for the Big 12, I could see this one getting ugly before I could see the Wildcats pulling it off.
Pick: Duke
Confidence: 8/10
No. 3 Texas Tech (-5.5) vs. No. 10 Arkansas
Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025 | Time: 9:09 p.m. CT | TV Channel: TBS/truTV | Site: Chase Center; San Francisco, CA
Texas Tech will face off against the lone double-digit seed left in the tournament, but it’s not your typical Cinderella story. Arkansas is coached by John Calipari, and he’s been here plenty of times with the Kentucky Wildcats.
Tale of the Tape
| (3) Texas Tech | vs. | (10) Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| 27-8 | W-L | 22-13 |
| 7 | Power Ranking | 41 |
| 7 | NET Rank | 40 |
| +28.18 (8) | KenPom | +19.07 (36) |
| 125.4 (5) | Off. Eff. | 114.2 (65) |
| 97.2 (37) | Def. Eff. | 95.1 (15) |
| 66.0 (261) | Adj. Tempo | 69.4 (68) |
| 55.2% (29) | Effective FG% | 52.3% (103) |
| 53.2% (36) | Rebound Rate | 50.3% (166) |
| 30.2% (270) | Free Throw Rate | 35.6% (102) |
| 37.1% (31) | 3-PT FG% | 32.4% (246) |
Texas Tech’s offense has managed to keep on rolling without Chance McMillian over the last three games, and against the Razorbacks, they’ll hope to continue that trend. Luckily for the Red Raiders, their offensive prowess should give Arkansas some issues.
Arkansas has allowed nearly 10 offensive rebounds per game to opponents this season, which is great news for JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. Toppin, a first-team All-American, has been as dominant as any player in the country this season, averaging 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds. Against Drake, Toppin was an efficient 11-13 from the field, with 25 points and 12 rebounds. Add the 28 points, six rebounds, and five assists from Darrion Williams and you’ve got some real problems to deal with inside.
If Arkansas is going to win this game, it will have to neutralize those two inside, all while keeping the Red Raiders from getting hot from three. That’s a lot easier said than done.
Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 7/10
No. 1 Houston (-5.5) vs. No. 4 Purdue
Date: Friday, March 28, 2025 | Time: 9:09 p.m. CT | TV Channel: TBS/truTV | Site: Lucas Oil Stadium; Indianapolis, IN
Houston is the one-seed in this Sweet 16 matchup, but it might not feel like it at tip-off. The Cougars will have to play Purdue in their own state, and the Boilermakers are just one year removed from finishing as the national runner-up.
Tale of the Tape
| (1) Houston | vs. | (4) Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| 32-4 | W-L | 24-11 |
| 2 | Power Ranking | 18 |
| 3 | NET Rank | 19 |
| +35.87 (2) | KenPom | +24.86 (16) |
| 123.8 (10) | Off. Eff. | 124.4 (7) |
| 88.0 (1) | Def. Eff. | 99.6 (55) |
| 61.6 (359) | Adj. Tempo | 65.1 (299) |
| 52.6% (94) | Effective FG% | 56.1% (19) |
| 53.8% (24) | Rebound Rate | 51.9% (92) |
| 28.2% (317) | Free Throw Rate | 34.6% (130) |
| 39.8% (1) | 3-PT FG% | 38.5% (9) |
If you like methodical and intricately-coached basketball, this is the game to watch in the Round of 16. Both the Cougars and the Boilermakers have a slow offensive tempo that takes as much time as possible in each possession.
The problem is, if Purdue is going to beat the Cougars, they’re going to have to play outside of their comfort zone. Kelvin Sampson is fine letting this game bleed slowly, as his team employs the best defensive numbers in college basketball. The Coogs can put the clamps down on just about anyone, and that makes them tough enough as it is.
Combine that with the fact that UH leads the country in three-point shooting percentage (39.8%), and it’s easy to see why so many people are picking this team to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Purdue is going to have to push the ball more than they want, and that plays right into Houston’s hand. I’ll take the Cougars to pull away late in another defensive gem.
