The Big 12 women’s basketball season has just four games left before all 16 teams head to Kansas City for the conference tournament.
The seeding won’t be announced until the final weekend. But that doesn’t mean we can’t look ahead. So, in this piece, that’s what we do. We’re looking ahead to what the field would look like if the tournament started today.
For tiebreakers, we used the Big 12 rules on the web site. Yes, the rules say they’re for the 2023-24 season. But let’s assume nothing has changed, except for the fact that there are 16 teams now.
The tournament seeding is simple. The top four teams get double byes to the quarterfinals. The next four teams get single byes to the second round. The rest of the teams play in the first round. After five days, there’s a champion.
So, if the Big 12 women’s tournament started today, here is how the tournament would be seeded. Everyone who didn’t force me to break ties is my favorite.
Seeds Nos. 1-4: Double Byes
No. 1 Kansas State (12-2)
No. 2 TCU (12-2)
No. 3 Baylor (12-2)
No. 4 Utah (11-3)
Because K-State, TCU and Baylor are tied the first tiebreaker is winning percentage in head-to-head games. Right now, Kansas State is 1-0 (1.000), TCU is 1-1 (.500) and Baylor is 0-1 (.000). But, K-State must still play Baylor, and the Bears still have another game with TCU. But if K-State beats Baylor, that helps the Wildcats considerably.
Utah is clearly the fourth seed.
None of these teams have clinched the double bye yet. But they have guaranteed themselves they won’t play in the first round. Even with a four-game losing streak, the worst any of them will finish is the Top 8.
Seeds Nos. 5-8: Single Byes
No. 5 Oklahoma State (10-4)
No. 6 West Virginia (10-4)
No. 7 Iowa State (9-5)
No. 8 Colorado (8-6)
OSU and WVU split their season series. Next is each team’s winning percentage versus the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings.
The Cowgirls beat Kansas State. West Virginia hasn’t played the Wildcats yet. For now, OSU gets the No. 5 seed.
Many thanks to Iowa State and Colorado for being kind enough to have different records.
First Round (Seeds 9-16)
No. 9 Arizona (6-8)
No. 10 Cincinnati (6-8)
No. 11 (tie) Kansas (4-10)
No. 11 (tie) BYU (4-10)
No. 13 Texas Tech (3-11)
No. 14 UCF (2-12)
No. 15 Arizona State (2-12)
No. 16 Houston (1-13)
First, Arizona beat Cincinnati, and the two teams don’t play each other again. So, the Wildcats win that tiebreaker.
Next, remember how we broke the OSU-WVU tie? Well, that doesn’t apply here yet. Kansas and BYU don’t play until Feb. 25. And, if you’re trying to use each team’s winning percentage versus the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings to break it, well guess what?
The only team both have beaten that is ahead of them is Oklahoma State. So, we’re in a holding pattern for a bit. Oh, and Kansas must play OSU again. So this will be clear by the end of the season.
UCF recently beat Arizona State in the only meeting, so the Knights win that tiebreaker.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
