The Houston Cougars and the Iowa State Cyclones continue Big 12 Conference men’s basketball action on Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025, in Houston, Texas.
Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. central. Houston (22-4, 14-1 in Big 12) is ranked No. 5 in the AP Top 25 while the Cyclones (21-5, 11-4) is No. 8.
If the rest of the league is hoping to derail Houston’s run to a second straight regular-season Big 12 title, this might be the last stand. The remaining schedule is difficult, but a win on Saturday locks in a double-bye for the Cougars in the Big 12 Tournament and they already have a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed in Kansas City.
The Cyclones are three games back of Houston in the standings and catching the Cougars would take not only winning out but also an enormous collapse from Houston. Right now, Iowa State wants to make sure it hangs onto one of the four double byes in the Big 12 Tournament. The Cyclones have a two-game cushion, but BYU is surging in fifth place.
Here is a preview of Saturday’s game.
How to Watch Houston vs. Iowa State
Date: Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025
Time: 1 p.m. CT
TV Channel: ESPN
Site: McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, Ariz.
Houston vs. Iowa State Betting Odds, Lines
Opening Line: Houston -7.5
Current Line: Houston -12.5
Over/Under: 132.5
Houston vs. Iowa State Predictions
Houston can beat teams in multiple ways. The Cougars have the No. 3 defense in the country analytically per KenPom.com and excel at creating chaos on the wings and forcing turnovers.
Offensively, Houston can rain 3-pointers with the best of them. As a team they shoot nearly 40% from distance. L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Terrance Acreneaux are all capable of getting hot. Even Mylik Wilson, not typically a 3-point shooter, is 44% from there.
Inside, forward J’Wan Roberts has stepped up his offensive game and averages 11.6 points per game. With JoJo Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis, the Cougars have the glass covered. If they keep rolling, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament is realistic.
In many ways, Iowa State is a mirror image. The Cyclones are No. 10 in defensive efficiency per KenPom and they rely on stifling man defense that keeps offensive players out of the middle of the court.
Iowa State isn’t shooting as well from the arc as Houston (34.7%), but the return of forward Milan Momcilovic has allowed coach T.J. Otzelberger to put players back in the right places. Momcilovic, Curtis Jones, Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey are all capable of catching fire.
But, as Jeff Goodman at The Field of 68 reported on Friday night, the Cyclones will be short-handed in the backcourt.
This is the best set of interior offensive players Otz has had. Between Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson he has two forwards that average a combined 21 points and 13 rebounds per game. Jefferson’s passing ability (2.8 assists per game) is a differentiator.
This is the only meeting between these two teams this regular season. Houston’s only loss at home was to Texas Tech. Iowa State is 5-3 on the road. This feels like a last possession game.
Houston 83, Iowa State 73
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Houston (80.6% Chance of Winning)
Note: Prediction was updated after the news on Gilbert and Jones.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
