We’re over a month removed from the 2024 college football season and still six months out from the 2025 season, but the vast majority of player management and coaching changes have been made.
There will still be movement in the spring portal window, but it likely won’t be as active as the window in December.
That means that, for the most part, rosters and staffs around the country are set, and we can start to look at how teams should stack up next season.
One of the most popular predictive measures for college football has become Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings. Using a combination of returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history, Connelly provides a power ranking based on “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.”
On Thursday, Connelly published his initial SP+ rankings for 2025. Here’s how the Big 12 stacks up.
Big 12 SP+ Rankings for 2025
| TEAM | SP+ | OFF. SP+ | DEF. SP+ | ST SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19. Kansas State | 13.7 | 34.4 (20) | 20.8 (28) | 0.2 (26) |
| 26. TCU | 10.5 | 34.6 (18) | 24.1 (41) | -0.1 (92) |
| 27. BYU | 10.1 | 31.6 (32) | 21.5 (31) | 0.3 (10) |
| 28. Iowa State | 9.9 | 30.5 (39) | 20.6 (27) | -0.1 (87) |
| 29. Arizona State | 9.8 | 31.3 (34) | 21.5 (32) | -0.6 (136) |
| 32. Utah | 9.5 | 26.7 (70) | 17.3 (17) | 0.2 (36) |
| 33. Texas Tech | 8.7 | 35.5 (13) | 26.8 (61) | 0.2 (23) |
| 36. Baylor | 8.0 | 34.6 (17) | 26.6 (58) | 0.2 (38) |
| 48. Colorado | 3.9 | 30.0 (41) | 26.1 (54) | -0.2 (114) |
| 49. Kansas | 3.9 | 32.5 (25) | 28.6 (78) | -0.1 (94) |
| 55. Cincinnati | 1.7 | 26.1 (76) | 24.4 (44) | -0.1 (88) |
| 56. UCF | 1.3 | 27.7 (63) | 26.3 (56) | 0.0 (81) |
| 64. West Virginia | 0.0 | 28.5 (55) | 28.5 (75) | 0.2 (18) |
| 66. Arizona | -0.1 | 27.4 (68) | 27.5 (64) | 0.2 (16) |
| 73. Oklahoma State | -2.0 | 27.5 (65) | 29.5 (85) | 0.0 (78) |
| 78. Houston | -2.9 | 20.3 (111) | 29.5 (82) | -0.2 (120) |
The Big 12 ranks third among all conferences by average SP+ rating, coming in with an average of +5.4, trailing the Big Ten (+8.3) and SEC (+14.9).
The Big 12’s average offensive ranking is third among all conferences (29.9), and the average defense also comes in third (24.6) among all leagues.
The most notable thing about the Big 12 is just how closely the teams are grouped together. In one of Connelly’s takeaways, he listed the number of teams within seven points of being the top team in the conference. The Big 12, of course, is the most competitive, with eight teams fitting the description.
“While Kansas State starts out a little ahead of the Big 12 pack, the conference has seven teams ranked between 26th and 36th, including last year’s major Big 12 championship contenders (Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU), a couple of late 2024 risers (TCU, Baylor), a major bounce-back candidate (Utah) and a team with one of the best transfer classes in the country (Texas Tech). This is going to be fun.“
These rankings will be updated before the season actually gets here, but this at least gives us some interesting statistics to look at in the months ahead.
You didn’t need this to tell you the Big 12 race would be tight again in 2025, but the numbers do confirm what we were all thinking: This league is going to give you the most exciting week-to-week action of any conference in college football.
