The Big 12 basketball tournament is less than a week away, which means that March Madness is literally right around the corner.
Kansas, the preseason No. 1 team in the country, is hanging on to a tournament bid by the thinnest of margins and appears far removed from being a legitimate national title contender—but that doesn’t mean the Big 12 is void of teams who are built to make that kind of run.
Narratives surrounding the Big 12’s demise have come and gone in waves throughout the 2024-25 season, most grounded in the fact that the Jayhawks have failed to live up to their preseason hype.
But as the regular season comes to a close, several Big 12 teams look primed to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s take a look at the contenders.
Houston Cougars
RECORD: 26-4 (18-1)
NET RANK: #3
KENPOM: #3
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way. Houston has advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament five consecutive times, and it would be absolutely shocking if they didn’t make it six years in a row. The Coogs are playing some of their best basketball down the stretch, and their only loss in regulation this season was a five-point defeat at the hands of an uber-experienced Auburn team back in November.
Houston is excellent off the glass and creates extra possessions with the seventh-best turnover margin (4.8) in the country. Add to that the third-best three-point percentage (39.6%) and the No. 1 scoring defense in the country (58.0 ppg) and you’ve got the makings of a championship contender.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
RECORD: 23-7 (14-5)
NET RANK: #7
KENPOM: #7
If the Red Raiders can stay healthy heading into the tournament, they’ll be a trendy Final Four pick, and for good reason. JT Toppin is playing like one of the best players in America, and with Darrion Williams’ ability to post up and score, TTU is tough to defend down low despite not having the biggest lineup. Plus, when Tech is hitting from outside, which is more often than not (37.9%, 23rd nationally), they’re next to impossible to guard.
Tech moves the ball effectively on offense with one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios (1.61) in the country, plays above-average defense (30th KenPom DRtg), and ranks in the top 30 nationally in free-throw percentage (77.1%). That’s a recipe for success in March.
Iowa State Cyclones
RECORD: 22-8 (12-7)
NET RANK: #9
KENPOM: #11
As has been the since T.J. Otzelberger took over, Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in basketball, ranking seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency, but the difference in 2024-25 has been the Cyclones’ offense. Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, Iowa State ranks second in the Big 12 in field goal percentage (47.5%), and because of some offensive adjustments, are more efficient with their looks. The Cyclones don’t take a lot of three-point attempts, with just over 21 attempts per game, but do have effective shooters in Milan Momcilovic (40%) and Curtis Jones (37%). Thanks to that, they’ve seen big improvement with an effective field goal percentage of 54% this season.
With an improved offense, a stout defense, and a lineup that can get to the free throw line as well as anyone, this could be the team that finally breaks through for Otzelberger. If they can stay healthy, there’s a good shot that happens.
Arizona Wildcats
RECORD: 20-10 (14-5)
NET RANK: #10
KENPOM: #14
There’s a decent chance that Arizona peaked too early after going 11-1 to start Big 12 play but dropping four of seven since. However, if the Wildcats get back to playing the way they did in late January and early February, they are capable of hanging with just about anyone in the field. Arizona is one of nine teams that fit the KenPom criteria of a national championship contender, with the 15th-ranked offense and the 25th-ranked defense in adjusted efficiency, and they’ve got a certified star in Caleb Love.
If the stars align, Arizona is a team that could cause all kinds of issues in the tournament.
BYU Cougars
RECORD: 22-8 (13-6)
NET RANK: #24
KENPOM: #23
If there was a “wildcard” in the 2025 tournament, my money would immediately go on the BYU Cougars. We’ve seen teams get hot at the right time and go ballistic in March, and the Cougars fit that criteria wonderfully. Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, BYU ranks fourth nationally in effective field goal percentage (57.6%), 18th from the field (48.7%), and second in the Big 12 with 81.2 points per game.
Their offense is championship caliber, and in recent weeks, their defense has shown up in a big, big way. If that persists into the tournament, watch out for this Cougars team to make a run for Kevin Young.
