The Big 12 is about to enter March Madness. The NCAA Tournament starts next week and the league will learn which teams advance and where they’re seeded on Sunday.
Who makes the field? Where will key teams be seeded? Will there be any surprises? Here are five stories to watch and my predictions on what happens.
HOW MANY TEAMS MAKE IT?
I believe eight teams will make it — Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech and West Virginia. Baylor’s Scott Drew believes his team clinched its ticket with their second-round win and I tend to agree. The Mountaineers are bubble-adjacent, but I wouldn’t expect that bubble to burst come selection Sunday.
No other Big 12 team is sneaking in. The other eight teams needed to win the Big 12 Tournament to get in.
HOW MANY TOP 16 BIG 12 TEAMS?
Being a Top 16 seed or being seeded among the Top 4 teams in each region, allows the NCAA Tournament to give those teams a bit of geographical preference, with a heavy lean on the No. 1 seed.
I think the Big 12 will end up with four teams among the Top 16. Houston, Texas Tech and Arizona feel like locks. The team to watch is Iowa State.
The Cyclones have dropped to a No. 4 seed since their quarterfinal loss to BYU. I think their credentials keep them at a No. 4 seed, but that will depend on what happens in the final hours leading up to the bracket release. If the remaining tournaments go to form, I think the Cyclones hold.
WHERE WILL BYU BE SEEDED?
Had BYU beaten Houston on Friday, I felt the Cougars would have moved up to a No. 4 seed. After the loss, I think BYU should hold steady at No. 5.
Their remarkable run the past six weeks has helped the Cougars’ NET rating. The way they’ve played the last six weeks passes the eye test. The committee takes a team’s health and its late-season results into account. Since starting league play 2-4, the Cougars have played like a Top 25 team and should be rewarded in kind.
WHERE WILL KANSAS BE SEEDED?
I think Kansas will be a No. 7 seed. The Jayhawks are not deserving of anything higher than that. If you’re a Kansas fan, you don’t want the Jayhawks to fall to a No. 8 seed.
The last time Kansas was a No. 8 seed was in 2000. That teams fell to Duke in the second round. The Jayhawks, obviously, have a better chance to go further in the tournament as a No. 7 seed and drawing, most likely, a No. 2 seed. Plus, if a No. 15 seed pulls off that first-round upset, Kansas would benefit if that upset is on their side of the bracket. That’s far less likely as a No. 8 seed.
WILL ANY BIG 12 TEAMS END UP IN THE FIRST FOUR?
To be in the First Four a team must be a No. 11 or a No. 12 seed. Baylor feels like a No. 9 and West Virginia feels like a No. 10 and bracketologists seem to agree.
Baylor won’t drop two spots. WVU might drop one, but even if the Mountaineers do so, I think they’ll avoid a trip to Dayton.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
