Conference tournaments are over, and it is officially time for the 2025 NCAA basketball tournament. March Madness is one of the biggest sporting events of the year, and thanks to the chaos and unpredictability that it brings every year, it’s also one of the most unforgettable times of the year.
Cinderella stories like 2018 Loyola Chicago and Butler in 2011 make this tournament the most entertaining part of college basketball. However, it’s not as common as it might seem. Going back to 1985, 34 of the last 39 champions were either 1, 2, or 3 seeds—and 25 of them (64%) were 1s.
Being a top seed in March Madness has its perks. Not only are they the best four teams in the field, but they also have the most beneficial path to the Final Four—hypothetically.
With a first-round game against a 16-seed and an eight- or nine-seed in the Round of 32, the one-seeds should have a navigable path to the Sweet Sixteen, then the Elite Eight, and eventually the Final Four. The only problem is that we’ve seen all four one-seeds in the Final Four just once in tournament history (2008).
This year’s one-seeds—Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston—all have legitimate national title hopes, as there doesn’t appear to be a team head-and-shoulders above anyone else. But who has the toughest path ahead?
Let’s take a look at each of the one seeds’ paths to the second weekend, using our Power Rankings as a measuring stick for difficulty.
Houston (Midwest)
First Round: (16) SIU Edwardsville
SIUE comes into the tournament after winning the Ohio Valley Tournament but comes in as the No. 222 team in the country and the No. 65 team in the tournament field. Houston will handle business here.
Second Round: (8) Gonzaga / (9) Georgia
Yes, Georgia would provide a tricky matchup for the Cougars as the No. 34 overall team in the country. However, they aren’t the team that makes Houston’s path to the Sweet Sixteen particularly difficult. Gonzaga is an eight-seed, but they’re also the No. 9 overall team in our power rankings. Considering Houston is the No. 2 team in our Power Rankings, this is an Elite Eight-level matchup in a Round of 32 set. In fact, Tennesee’s draw of Wofford (No. 130) and then either UCLA (No. 25) or Utah State (No. 47) gives them a much easier path to the Sweet Sixteen than Houston. Talk about a tough draw.
Difficulty: Difficulty 9/10
Auburn (South)
First Round: (16) Alabama St./Saint Francis
Alabama State comes in as the second-worst team in the tournament field and No. 275 overall team in the country. Meanwhile, Saint Francis is dead last in the tournament field and 306th overall. Regardless of which team comes out of the First Four to take on Auburn, the Tigers should have no issues dismantling their first-round opponent to move on to the Round of 32.
Second Round: (8) Louisville / (9) Creighton
Louisville (No. 23) is a tough draw in the second round, given that the Cardinals get past Creighton (No. 36), and is coming off a second-place finish in the ACC. Behind all-ACC first-team selection Chucky Hepburn, the Cardinals should be able to push Auburn. Still, as the No. 3 overall team in the tournament, the Tigers should have a decisive advantage in the game.
Difficulty: 7/10
Duke (East)
First Round: (16) American/Mount St. Mary’s
Neither American (No. 237) or Mount St. Mary’s (No. 243) should be able to hang with Duke, with or without Cooper Flagg in the lineup.
Second Round: (8) Mississippi State / (9) Baylor
Baylor checks in at No. 26 in our Power Rankings, while Mississipi State isn’t far behind at No. 33. The Bears have a strong offense and have played a top 10 schedule this season, as their 14 losses might suggest. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have good balance, but aren’t elite on either side of the ball. Duke is the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings, and if Cooper Flagg is in this game, the Blue Devils should prevail.
Difficulty: 5/10
Florida (West)
First Round: (16) Norfolk State
Norfolk State has the pleasure of dealing with the hottest team in the country, and as the No. 183 overall team, they don’t have the firepower to keep up with the best offense that we’ve seen this season.
Second Round: (8) UConn / Oklahoma (9)
Florida has already taken down Oklahoma (No. 43) in a 20-point blowout and likely wouldn’t struggle too much with the Sooners a second time around. Meanwhile, UConn comes into the tournament after winning each of the last two tournaments but are far from the team they’ve been. They’re still a good shooting team, but their defense has struggled this year. That doesn’t bode well against the Gators.
Difficulty: Difficulty 4/10
