The Big 12 Conference will have seven women’s teams into the NCAA Tournament, which continues on Friday with first-round games all over the country.
The first-round games, depending on the seed line, can end up being incredibly lopsided. The reality is there are far fewer first-round upsets in the women’s tournament than in the men’s tournament. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be competitive games.
The goal of this piece is to rank each of the seven first-round games from least competitive to most competitive. So, let’s go, starting with what is likely to be the least competitive game on the slate.
TCU vs. Fairleigh Dickinson, 2:30 p.m., Friday, ESPN2
The game is in Fort Worth, as the Horned Frogs drew a home sub-regional. That doesn’t help FDU at all.
Go back to non-conference and one will see that TCU played nine mid- or low-major programs and won each of those games rather easily. The Horned Frogs scored 100 or more points twice and beat one team by 59 points. Those games were at home, by the way.
This is liable to be in hand by halftime.
Iowa State vs. Michigan, 10:30 a.m. CT, Friday, ESPN2
The Cyclones won their First Four game. But they’re going to get basically 36 hours to recover and to prepare for the Wolverines. It’s not a good recipe. Who chose a 10:30 a.m. game time?
The Wolverines have three players that average at least 13 points per game, including Olivia Olson and Syla Swords, who average 16 points each. The Wolverines are a solid shooting team that doesn’t have a lot of depth. But Michigan has also had plenty of rest, where the Cyclones haven’t.
Playing through Audi Crooks is Iowa State’s best bet to keep this game competitive.
Baylor vs. Grand Canyon, 2:30 p.m. CT, Friday, ESPNU
Don’t kill the messenger, but GCU is pretty dang good. Lopes coach Molly Miller is a hot name on the coaching market, including for the open job at nearby Arizona State. GCU hasn’t lost a game since Nov. 18, which is nuts. That was to Oregon. The Lopes do have a high-major win over Arizona.
GCU also has one of the player names in the tournament one that fits right in here in Texas — Trinity San Antonio.
The Lopes have the offensive firepower to give the Bears some trouble. Expect a competitive game going into the third quarter before Baylor’s overall depth and experience allows it to pull away.
Kansas State vs. Fairfield, 1:30 p.m. CT, Friday, ESPNNews
This game is going to interesting to unfold. Fairfield is the two-time defending MAAC Tournament champion and is led by one of the game’s rising coaching stars in Carly Thibault-DuDonis. The Stags’ leading scorer is Meghan Anderson, who averages 15.1 points per game. But they are an excellent defensive team, too.
It feels like forever since Kansas State played a game. Center Ayoka Lee will return for this game and for many of the Wildcats this is their last NCAA Tournament run. It gives the opener a bit more gravitas.
Last year Fairfield lost to Indiana by 33 points. Expect this to be a closer affair. It could be tight going into the fourth quarter. Lee’s height will be a difference-maker.
West Virginia vs. TBA, 1 p.m. CT, Saturday, ESPNNews
West Virginia won’t know its opponent until Thursday evening, but it will be either Columbia or Washington. Can we glean anything from 6-11 games of a season ago?
Well, three of them were one- or two-possession games. The two-possession game was the 6-11 game that involved the First Four winner, which was Arizona. The Wildcats lost by five points. That extra couple of days of rest should benefit the Mountaineers.
WVU was in an 8-9 game last year and beat Princeton by 10 points. Given how well the Mountaineers play defense, I suspect their first-round game will be competitive well into the second half, with that defense making the difference down the stretch.
Oklahoma State vs. South Dakota State, 2:30 p.m. CT, Saturday, ESPN2
South Dakota State hasn’t lost since Dec. 22 at Texas. All three of the Jackrabbits’ losses are to high-major teams. But, SDSU has wins over Creighton and Wisconsin. Brooklyn Meyer leads South Dakota State with 17.4 points.
SDSU and Oklahoma State feel like similar teams. Both like to score and get up and down the floor. The Jackrabbits aren’t scared by high-major teams and have won five NCAA Tournament games, most recently in 2023.
This one should be competitive going into the fourth quarter.
Indiana vs. Utah, 12:30 p.m., Friday, ESPN2
It’s an 8-9 game so, naturally it should be competitive, right? Let’s look at last year’s 8-9 games. The combined margin of victory in the four games was actually 30 points and only one was a one-possession game down the stretch.
The Hoosiers have been here plenty, but they’ve lost three of their last five, but all three losses were to ranked teams. Yarden Garzon leads four Indiana players in double figures with 14.5 points.
Gianna Kneepkens leads Utah with 19.2 ppg and the Utes scored about seven more points per game than Indiana. Even with last year’s data, this should be the most competitive Big 12 game of the first round.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
