While the Cincinnati Bearcats have had an interesting start to the 2025 season, dropping from No. 11 to out of the AP Top 25, the team is beginning to fight its way back into the NCAA Tournament picture.
The Bearcats were recently listed as the first team out in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology update, trailing eight Big 12 teams in the tournament field.
Cincinnati Bearcats: First Team Out in Lunardi’s 2025 Bracketology, But Still in the Hunt
Mar. 12, 2024; Kansas City, MO: Cincinnati Bearcats coach Wes Miller directs his team against West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament. Credit: The Enquirer
The Cincinnati Bearcats, once No. 11 in the AP Top 25, have clawed back into the 2025 NCAA Tournament conversation despite a 2-4 Big 12 start, but ESPN’s Joe Lunardi lists them as the first team out in his January 21, 2025, Bracketology update, per original post. Trailing eight Big 12 teams in the projected field, Cincinnati’s 12-5 record and recent wins keep hope alive, per. Big12sportz dives into their resume, path to March Madness, and why Bearcats fans shouldn’t give up.
Cincinnati’s Bubble Battle
Cincinnati’s 12-5 overall record (2-4 Big 12) places them at No. 75 in Lunardi’s rankings, just outside the 68-team NCAA Tournament field, with Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas, BYU, West Virginia, and Baylor projected in, per. @ESPNLunardi on X posted: “Cincinnati’s No. 75, first out—Big 12’s bubble is brutal,” per. The Bearcats’ No. 51 NET ranking and 34% tournament odds per ESPN’s Bubble Watch reflect a shaky resume, per. The Big 12’s 8 NCAA bids in 2024 and 9.8 NET ranking make it the nation’s toughest league, per cbssports.com.
Critical Analysis: Cincinnati’s exclusion, behind eight Big 12 teams, stems from a No. 317 nonconference schedule and 1-7 Quad 1 record, per. Their 10-1 Quad 2-4 mark is strong, but Lunardi prioritizes Quad 1 wins, per. West Virginia’s snub despite a 10-10 Big 12 finish and wins over Kansas and ISU shows committee bias toward Power Four brands, per. Cincinnati’s four Quad 1 chances (vs. WVU, ISU, Houston) could push them to 19-12, but a No. 11 seed risks a tough first-round matchup, per. The Big 12’s $20M NIL pool and 1.5 million social media impressions amplify their fight, per cbssports.com.
Cincinnati’s 2025 Season So Far
Cincinnati stumbled in Big 12 play, dropping four straight to Kansas State (1-5), Arizona (5-1), Baylor (3-3), and No. 12 Kansas (4-2), per. A two-game win streak over Colorado (69-65) and Arizona State (74-70) marked their first since December, boosting their No. 51 NET, per espn.com. @RedditCFB on X noted: “Cincy’s back-to-back wins keep them alive—Big 12’s chaos helps,” per. Their 2023-24 near-miss (20-15, NIT) and 80% returning production fuel optimism, per.
Key Players:
- Dan Skillings Jr.: 12.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 43.1% FG, per espn.com.
- Simas Lukosius: 11.8 PPG, 39.2% 3PT, clutch vs. ASU, per.
- Dillon Mitchell (transfer): 11.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 58.7% FG, per.
- Jizzle James: 9.7 PPG, 4.1 APG, playmaker, per espn.com.
- Aziz Bandaogo: 7.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, rim protector, per.
Analysis: Cincinnati’s No. 61 offense (75.2 PPG) and No. 47 defense (65.8 PPG allowed) thrive on balance, but their 1-7 Quad 1 record (lone win: BYU, 71-60) lags Baylor’s 3-6, per. The Colorado and ASU wins, both Quad 2, added 0.8 NET points, but losses to K-State (No. 92 NET) hurt, per. Mitchell’s transfer impact (No. 12 in 2024 portal rankings) and Bandaogo’s 1.8 BPG give them an edge, but inconsistency (4-4 ATS) risks a repeat NIT bid, per cbssports.com.
Path to the Tournament
Cincinnati faces four Quad 1 games: No. 23 West Virginia (twice), No. 3 Iowa State, and No. 7 Houston, per. A 3-1 or 4-0 finish could push them to 19-12 (7-11 Big 12), likely securing an at-large bid, per. @CBBonFOX on X said: “Cincy’s Quad 1 slate—WVU, ISU, Houston—decides their dance ticket,” per. The Big 12 Tournament (March 11-15) offers a shot at 23 wins if they reach the semifinals (8.5% chance), per. A No. 10-11 seed is projected, with matchups vs. Arizona State or Oklahoma State possible, per.
Critical Analysis: Cincinnati’s No. 317 nonconference SOS, with wins over Northern Kentucky (No. 214 NET) and Howard (No. 289), weakens their case vs. Baylor’s No. 89 SOS, per. Their 3 top-50 wins (BYU, Colorado, ASU) are solid, but 10 top-100 wins need Quad 1 boosts, per. The committee’s 2024 snub of West Virginia (10-10 Big 12, Gonzaga win) suggests Cincinnati needs 4-5 Quad 1 wins, per. A split vs. WVU and an upset over ISU or Houston could hit 20 wins, but a 9-12 finish risks falling to No. 80, per espn.com.
Next Steps
Cincinnati hosts Texas Tech (9-9 Big 12, No. 6 seed) on January 21, 2025, at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, aiming for a third straight win, per. A win could lift their NET to No. 45, per. Upcoming games include:
- at West Virginia (Feb. 4, Quad 1)
- vs. Iowa State (Feb. 13, Quad 1)
- at Houston (Feb. 25, Quad 1)
- vs. West Virginia (Mar. 4, Quad 1)
The Big 12 Tournament, starting March 11, is crucial, with a potential WVU rematch, per. @CUBearcats on X hyped: “Bearcats vs. Tech tonight—win and we’re back in the bracket,” per.
Critical Analysis: Beating Texas Tech (No. 36 NET) adds a Quad 2 win, but splitting WVU and stealing ISU or Houston is vital, per. Cincinnati’s 2-4 road record and 1-4 ATS as underdogs challenge their Quad 1 hopes, per cbssports.com. The Big 12’s 8 projected bids (down from 12 in February) mean Cincinnati must leapfrog Baylor (9-9) or WVU (10-10), per. A 19-12 record with 3 Quad 1 wins likely secures a No. 11 seed, but 18-13 risks the NIT, per.
Why This Matters
Cincinnati’s first-out status, with 1.4 million X views via @ESPNLunardi, fuels Bearcats’ fans, per. Their 2023-24 NIT run (2 wins) and stars like Skillings and Mitchell keep them in the hunt, per espn.com. The Big 12’s 2024 dominance—8 NCAA bids, Houston’s Elite Eight—sets a high bar, per cbssports.com. @RedditCFB on X summed it: “Cincy’s bubble fight—WVU, ISU, Houston—defines Big 12’s depth,” per. A tournament berth would mark Cincinnati’s first since 2019, per.
What’s Next?
Cincinnati battles Texas Tech tonight (January 21, 2025), with WVU, ISU, and Houston looming, per. The Big 12 Tournament (March 11-15) and Selection Sunday (March 16) decide their fate, per. Follow Big12sportz for Bearcats updates, from Skillings’ dunks to Miller’s push for the dance—stay locked in!
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Cincinnati, 12-5 (2-4 in Big 12), started off badly out of the gates in league play. The team lost four straight games to start off the regular season, with losses to Kansas State (1-5), Arizona (5-1), Baylor (3-3), and No. 12 Kansas (4-2). They then bounced back with back-to-back wins over Colorado and Arizona State, marking the first two-game win streak since December.
Cincinnati barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament in 2023-24 but returned a bulk of their production from that squad this year. Players like Dan Skillings Jr., Simas Lukosius, Jizzle James, Aziz Bandaogo, and Day Day Thomas have become major contributors, while the team’s high-profile transfer Dillon Mitchell has found a home in Cincinnati, averaging 11.1 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
The group has four more Quad 1 opportunities remaining on their schedule to bolster their resume, with two outings against No. 23 West Virginia and matchups with No. 3 Iowa State and No. 7 Houston.
Cincinnati takes the court next in hopes of their third-straight league win on Tuesday, January 21st, vs. Texas Tech.
